Disclaimer: All information contained below are hypotheses based on rumors and unconfirmed leaks regarding the design, shape, technological and marketing aspects of the iPhone SE (third generation) successor.
What are we talking about
The iPhone SE is Apple’s entry-level line of smartphones (in addition to the official refurbished line and resellers/partners selling older-generation phones - these sales paths are part of a separate strategy, and that’s not what this text is about). I will highlight a few of its important elements, on which I will base further argument.
The first generation was unveiled in March (the so-called spring event) 2016. The phone was based on the chassis of the iPhone 5/5s (or rather, the series from 4 to 5/5s) - that is, designs already two years old in terms of the market and at least five years old on the side of the concept and manufacturing/logistics chains. It featured the A9 processor, which premiered a while earlier (in September 2015) in the iPhone 6/6s. We would see the A9 in one more product a year later - the 5th generation iPad.
That phone was also equipped with 2 GB of RAM. Something we first saw in the iPad Air (2nd generation) and iPad mini (4th generation) - both premiered in 2014. We’ll still see the same amount of memory in the iPhone 6s, 6s Plus, 7 and 8 (the 7 Plus and 8 Plus had 3 GB RAM) - products whose launches stretch into 2017.
Taking care of the spin off needed to outline the product environment, let’s go back to 2016 for a moment. It’s worth noting what - besides the launch of the first iPhone SE - happened this year (I’ll only highlight selected significant launches).
In 2016 Apple showed the 2nd generation of the Apple Watch (the world’s best-selling watch) - devoid of many of the flaws of the original, mainly marketing and cost. The next major generation would be the Apple Watch 4 and its ability to be configured without a dedicated iPhone (as part of the so-called Family Setup, now known as Apple Watch for your Kids) - which would lead to the Apple Watch (and not the iPhone) being the company’s first product for many new users introduced to Apple’s golden garden, but that’s a story for another time.
Also premiering was the iPhone 7. A phone painfully similar to several previous generations (starting with the iPhone 6), but featuring several important design changes, among others:
- no 3.5mm headphone jack;
- IP67 certification, or splash and dust resistance, for the first time (predecessors had no official waterproof certification);
- the change of the physical Home button to a haptic one with feedback;
- dual stereo speakers for the first time.
This is also not the story for today.
To go along with the lack of a mini-jack connector, 20 minutes after the launch of the iPhone 7 Apple unveiled an entirely new category of wearables: the first generation of AirPods. Of the products that were expected to change Apple’s sales structure and take the risk off the iPhone’s dominance, I have yet to mention only services from Apple and Home products (watch for launches in this area this year and next).
Comparisons, the important ones
To breathe a little after this wall of text, I invite you to two comparisons, in which I will focus exclusively on the features that interest me (I will mark them in bold) today.
iPhone 16 Pro vs iPhone 16 vs iPhone SE4
Here note the recurring elements.
Display:
- iPhone 16: 6.1” OLED, 60Hz, 2000 nits
- iPhone 16 Pro: 6.3” OLED, 120Hz ProMotion, 2000 nits
- iPhone SE4: 6.06” OLED, 60Hz
Processor (actually, it’s practically the same processor - which is also relevant to our story - which in the non-Pro version did not pass 100% quality testing, hence, for example, 5 cores instead of 6 and has less available cache):
- iPhone 16: A18
- iPhone 16 Pro: A18 Pro
- iPhone SE4: A18
RAM
- iPhone 16: 8GB
- iPhone 16 Pro: 8GB
- iPhone SE4: 6GB (or 8GB)
Memory options
- iPhone 16: 128GB, 256GB, 512GB
- iPhone 16 Pro: 128GB, 256GB, 512GB, 1TB
- iPhone SE4: 128GB, 256GB
Main camera
- iPhone 16: 48MP + 12MP ultra-wide-angle
- iPhone 16 Pro: 48MP Fusion + 12MP ultra-wide angle + 12MP telephoto lens (5x zoom)
- iPhone SE4: 48MP
Front camera
- iPhone 16: 12MP
- iPhone 16 Pro: 12MP
- iPhone SE4: 12MP
Case Material
- iPhone 16: Aluminum, Ceramic Shield
- iPhone 16 Pro: Titanium, Ceramic Shield
- iPhone SE4: Aluminum, Ceramic Shield
Water resistance
- iPhone 16: IP68
- iPhone 16 Pro: IP68
- iPhone SE4: IP68
Launch price
- iPhone 16: $799
- iPhone 16 Pro: $999
- iPhone SE4: $499 (estimated)
iPhone SE3 vs iPhone SE4
And here’s a look at how much of a change it will be to switch from a current (non-EU) budget smartphone from Apple.
Display
- SE3: 4.7” Retina HD LCD, 1334x750 pixels, 326 ppi
- SE4: 6.06” OLED, 1170x2532 pixels, approximately 457 ppi
Processor
- SE3: Apple A15 Bionic
- SE4: Apple A18
RAM
- SE3: 4GB
- SE4: 6 GB (or 8GB)
Internal memory
- SE3: 64 GB, 128 GB, 256 GB
- SE4: 128 GB, 256 GB
Main camera
- SE3: 12 MP
- SE4: 48 MP
Front camera
- SE3: 7 MP
- SE4: 12 MP
Biometrics
- SE3: Touch ID (fingerprint reader in Home button)
- SE4: Face ID
Water resistance
- SE3: IP67
- SE4: IP68
Charging socket
- SE3: Lighting
- SE4: USB-C
Starting price
- SE3: $429
- SE4: $499 (estimated)
The recycling revolution
When you look at the specifications above, they can be simplified to two sentences:
- The iPhone SE4 is almost an iPhone 16
- The iPhone SE4 is a huge upgrade over the iPhone SE3
and this is true. For the sake of completeness, it’s also worth adding that, if leaks are to be believed, it will look similar in design to the iPhone 14 (notice a pattern in reusing older designs to create the perception of an entry level model, while unifying the entire line of phones technologically?).
Tidbits such as the fact that if the iPhone SE4 will indeed have 6GB of RAM instead of 8 then we will see how Apple Intelligence performs on such a device - are irrelevant to the mass consumer at this stage of this product’s development.
Global Shift: From Eco-Friendly Packaging to Diverse Manufacturing
The lack of chargers attached to phones to nearly double the capacity of iPhone transportation in supply chains under the guise of environmentalism is now behind us.
In addition to this exercise, approaches have also been made to move production of all or part of iPhone components to different countries. More than 80% is still assembled in China, but production also takes place in India (about 14% of new iPhones including the entire line of 16), Vietnam (part of the production of iPads, MacBooks, Airpods and Apple Watch) or the Czech Republic, Malaysia, Thailand and South Korea (selected iPhone components).
In the event that current changes in U.S. politics force the relocation of production (even understood as assembly) to the homeland (primarily for financial and geopolitical reasons), Apple has been ready for this for years and is merely scaling this model. Designed in California. Made in India. Assembled in USA?
Quiet disruption factors (especially in the EU)
Think of today’s smartphone, which has de facto reached the stage of commoditization - phones are very similar to each other (there’s a reason why one of the important elements of the new product line is colors, and Apple in terms of communications is closer to a fashion and emotion-based company). With the prospect of moving away from smartphone dominance in 10+ years, it seems that Apple’s strategy is prepared for these changes.
Before that happens, let’s think about what the iPhone SE4 could be for the European Union:
An entry-level phone that, in the context of wages (including in the EU’s eastern flank) and the rising prices of other manufacturers’ devices, becomes a potentially reasonable choice rather than a luxury good.
A phone that typically provides 7-8 years of manufacturer support for system updates and maintains smooth operation. Here I have a hypothesis that this period will be extended to about 9-10 years due to the iterative nature of the changes, blurring the differences between successive versions of the iPhone and satisfying the slowly declining demand for replacing Apple phones with new ones.
A phone that meets EU regulations. Has the option to choose a default browser, other payment systems, allows apps to be installed from stores other than the App Store, and has a USB-C charging port (currently - January 2024 - Apple does not have an entry level phone in the EU, which should speed up the release of the iPhone SE4).
It has an SoC infrastructure that allows AI elements to be used as part of edge computing on end devices - locally.
In the context of the spirit of the law vs. the letter of the law, it seems that european regulations will strengthen rather than weaken the position of iOS and the iPhone on EU territory.
The Default Phone & Crawling for Domination
Hey, it’s me, the disclaimer, again: all calculations are significantly simplified (values are usually inflated), some data are based on average share or similarity of markets. The final numbers are not binding, but only intended to illustrate the scale.
The worldwide share of iOS is estimated at about 28%.
For European countries, the average is taken at 33% (or about 148 million out of 449 million people) with notable exceptions like:
- Austria (42%, about 3.8 million people)
- Belgium (48%, about 5.7 million people)
- Denmark (56%, about 3.3 million people)
- Ireland (56%, about 2.9 million people)
- Luxembourg (56%, nominal estimate of number of people irrelevant to our comparison)
- Netherlands (56%, about 10 million people)
- Sweden (56%, about 5.6 million people)
The share of iOS in the U.S. is about 58%, with about 87% of teens (according to Piper Sandler’s 2024 survey) owning an iPhone. There, devices from Apple (especially in the mass segments: phone and wearables) are already the default option.
The two significant markets still to be tapped are primarily China (current iOS share of 23%) and, rather longer term, India (current iOS share of around 4%).
Revenue alone from the sale of apps and services directly through the App Store within the European Union is about 7% of global revenue from this channel (so opening up to other marketplaces is not a big loss, especially since there is currently no viable competitor yet, and it is unclear whether one will emerge, as it would be another argument to move away from Android in favor of iOS). The number one market is the US, the number two market in terms of these revenues is and has to be… China.
Europe is important to Apple primarily because of market regulations and hardware adoption (18% y/y growth in the European smartphone market, for example). Presence in the EU is crucial to Apple’s global strategy, especially in terms of competition with Android and in terms of credibility for investors.
We can currently see the negative impact on the Apple ecosystem on a micro scale, when Apple Intelligence is not yet officially available in the EU (the estimate for arrangements and regulations, primarily alignment with the Digital Markets Act, is April 2025).
Also not insignificant (in the context of the microscale) is the fact that AI from Apple is only available on a few devices and… it is not a finished product. Most of the features presented at the September launch are not yet polished from the user’s perspective, and some are not yet on consumers’ devices at all.
What could come next
Phones have become boring, even blurring the lines between them. If rumors are confirmed that the 4th-generation iPhone SE is to be given a new name and sold as the iPhone 16E, this could mark a change in sales strategy that Apple has been pursuing for years.
The phones have iterative changes every year, with no year-to-year breakthrough. I expect exceptions, but not every year, such as AI or the development of technologies that can evade/bypass mobile operators, addressing the habits of Millennials, generations Z and alpha in the context of services based primarily on data transfer, especially instant messaging (perhaps we are moving towards having a p2p infrastructure in our pockets and hands, much more advanced than the one used to locate AirTags - ahead of which the release of the 2nd generation any day now), social media and VOD services.
Apple will actually produce one phone (the same chip, actually SoC) in different form factors:
- iPhone Pro line - flagships, launches in September
- iPhone line - devices sufficient for most users, launches in September
- iPhone SE line - entry level devices with technology mostly introduced in September, launches next spring.
iPhone will become “The Phone” - the default smartphone purchase option for the user who simply wants the phone to work for a few years without complaint. The perception of choosing a device will come down to, for example, choosing the number of cameras, color and price.
Interesting times are coming.